Wednesday, February 10, 2010, 10:02AM ET - U.S. Markets close in 5 hours and 58 minutes.

"A Truly Extraordinary Slump": Reports of Robust Recovery Premature, James Galbraith Says

Posted Nov 19, 2009 01:51pm EST by Aaron Task in Newsmakers, Recession
Disappointing reports this week on housing starts and foreclosures, as well as the index of leading economic indicators, have cast a bit of a pall on the "robust recovery" story, putting a crimp in the stock market's ascent in the process.

University of Texas professor James Galbraith was never a believer in the V-shaped recovery and says it's going to take a very long time for the U.S. to recover from a "truly extraordinary slump."

What the optimists are missing is the impact the housing bust is having on both American's ability to borrow and banks willingness to lend. The resulting credit contraction will prevent this recovery from following the path of those following prior post-war recessions, he says.

"There's no question the U.S. economy has stabilized but [it] remains very weak and will likely continue to be weak," Galbraith says. "There's very little sign the benefits that are being felt on Wall Street will be felt in the broader country anytime soon."

Galbraith predicts the unemployment rate will continue to rise into 2010 and decline "very slowly" thereafter. The U.S. economy needs "substantially greater policy intervention," he says, focused on the following:

  • Housing Woes: As of Sept. 30, over 14% of American homeowners with a mortgage are either behind on payments or in foreclosure, the Mortgage Bankers Association said Thursday. Those figures suggest the real inventory of homes for sale is much bigger than the "official" 8-month supply, as The WSJ reports. The government must do more to prevent foreclosures, Galbraith says.
  • Smart Jobs: Beyond merely putting people to work, Galbraith seeks policies that would both "create employment and set a strategic direction for the economy," most notably in the area of renewable energy.
  • Boomer Blues: With millions of Baby Boomers at or near retirement age, Galbraith advocates aid for new retirees, "so the demographic transition goes more smoothly than it otherwise would. "

In sum, Galbraith still says we need a second stimulus package, as we'll discuss in more detail in a forthcoming segment.

1332 Comments

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Thursday November 19, 2009 02:07PM EST

There is no recovery for the real people, recovery just for the scum bags on wall street and the banks. I say clean them out from NYC to DC and even where the scum Of N. Carolina where BAC is.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Thursday November 19, 2009 02:12PM EST

YOU MEAN SOMEONE REALLY TELLS THE TRUTH? MY GOODNESS , DON,T TELL NOBAMA , BERNANKE, OR TIMMY. THEY SAY IT IS GOOD,GOOD, GOOD.

Simon
Simon - Thursday November 19, 2009 02:13PM EST

MAYBE NOW THAT SANTA CLAUS HAS LOST HIS JOB OBAMA MIGHT ADDRESS THIS PROBLEM!!!!!!!!!!!! JOBS JOBS JOBS

Simon
Simon - Thursday November 19, 2009 02:13PM EST

MAYBE NOW THAT SANTA CLAUS HAS LOST HIS JOB OBAMA MIGHT ADDRESS THIS PROBLEM!!!!!!!!!!!! JOBS JOBS JOBS

TumblingDice5
TumblingDice5 - Thursday November 19, 2009 02:15PM EST

Terry - Election Question. ///////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////- - - - Did you throw a PARTY yesterday to celebrate Senator Robert Byrd's (West Virginia) 56 years in Congress?

John S
John S - Thursday November 19, 2009 02:21PM EST

Who does Galbraith think is going to pay for that additional aid to "new retirees"? The youth will rebel by not buying the overpriced assets of the Boomer generation. Deflation continues.

walter
walter - Thursday November 19, 2009 02:24PM EST

How did these idiots ever get to be on this program, I am appalled at their ineptness and stupidity. They were told that the conditions of the analysts were incurable, and still ask stupid questions (Duh) !! instead of addressing the subject with intellegence, I guess they think the word incurable does not apply to them and their Media buddies.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Thursday November 19, 2009 02:24PM EST

Now that wall street has driven most of the jobs overseas by forcing CEOs for more margin - It is now time to lay-off the wall street folks and tell them that they will be better off and are now free to persue other "oppertunities"... :)

Jon M
Jon M - Thursday November 19, 2009 02:26PM EST

they make it sound like you can only be an optimist or a pessimist. We are investors and need the real scoop to make decisions. the problem is that everyone messes with the reported numbers to fit their view.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Thursday November 19, 2009 02:27PM EST

OK.

san
san - Thursday November 19, 2009 02:29PM EST

Come on, this is a free money carry trade and exactly the same as what killed Iceland in 2008. How are they doing today, 11-12% interest rates. It's your future people. Don't bet on housing and banks.

Jan
Jan - Thursday November 19, 2009 02:30PM EST

Anybody who can see the economic data knows how bad it is going to get. ....................................................................................... As I point out to everybody who will listen, in a Service Sector Economy, increasing unemployment is a LEADING INDICATOR. ..................................................................................... The data says DEPRESSION.

Terry
Terry - Thursday November 19, 2009 02:30PM EST

It was/is a V shaped recovery...but only on Wall St. which produces zero. These people in Congress need to be replaced and we the voters need to impose the term limits that they will not impose on themselves. No Senator should be in office more than 2 terms (12 years) and no Congressmen/women should be in office more than 3 terms (6 years) otherwise they do too much harm to us all. VOTE OUT the INCUMBENTS in 2010.

shags1_23
shags1_23 - Thursday November 19, 2009 02:31PM EST

******************totally unrelated to the topic******************** http://action.firedoglake.com/page/s/fedrejectwatt?source=fdlemail111909 Oppose the Watt Amendment! It reduces the ability the Grayson-Paul measure would grant to audit the FED. We need transparency as to what a private entity is doing to our monetary policy.

Jim
Jim - Thursday November 19, 2009 02:31PM EST

Are you guys nuts? Deflationary crash? Please. The Govt. is printing money at an incredible rate. The Money Supply is an open fire hydrant, spewing cash at no interest. Sorry to talk reality, but the Govt. intends to inflate its way out of debt. If a Trillion tomorrow has the buying power of 100 Billion today, the debt effectively goes away... They can't pay off the debt, so they'll just turn it into meaningless paper. Why do you think China (a major debtholder) is spanking Obama for his monetary policy? They see our paper becoming nothing but paper....

Terry
Terry - Thursday November 19, 2009 02:33PM EST

TumblingDice5 - Thursday November 19, 2009 02:15PM EST Terry - Election Question. ///////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////- - - - Did you throw a PARTY yesterday to celebrate Senator Robert Byrd's (West Virginia) 56 years in Congress? //////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////// Wow! How many financial crisis did this Byrd cause?

korokmalfesio
korokmalfesio - Thursday November 19, 2009 02:33PM EST

Wall Street bulls and main street bears cannot coexist peacefully. I think there's trouble in the air.

Simon
Simon - Thursday November 19, 2009 02:35PM EST

University of Texas professor James Galbraith has it exactly right !!!!!! nice to hear someone talk truth.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Thursday November 19, 2009 02:36PM EST

I read a lot of these articles. What I have noticed is that as soon as themarket has a down day, all of these BEARS come out of their cave and declare doom and gloom. I have also notice that when the market is up no one says anything and the BEARS shut their trap until another down day happens. Hey DUMMIES ! By the looks of the market we have had more up then down days. So have your fun today. Tommorow will prove you haven't a crystal ball and your under educated guesses are just that !

Terry
Terry - Thursday November 19, 2009 02:37PM EST

TumblingDice5 - Thursday November 19, 2009 02:15PM EST Terry - Election Question. ///////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////- - - - Did you throw a PARTY yesterday to celebrate Senator Robert Byrd's (West Virginia) 56 years in Congress? //////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////// at a certain age I guess these old Byrd' Opp! meant birds are so senile they stop causing the problem but just sign unread bills that perpetuate the Congressional scan programs. /////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////Wow! How many financial crisis did this Byrd cause?

Yahoo! reserves the right to refuse, or remove any comment that does not comply with the Yahoo! Terms of Service. The submission of spam, hateful, or obscene messages may result in the termination of your Yahoo! ID.
About Tech Ticker - Send FeedbackDisclaimer. Copyright © 2007 Yahoo! Inc. All rights reserved.
Copyright/IP Policy - Terms of Service - Privacy Policy - Help
Quotes delayed, except where indicated otherwise. Delay times are 15 mins for NASDAQ, NYSE and Amex. See also delay times for other exchanges.

Quotes and other information supplied by independent providers identified on the Yahoo! Finance partner page. Quotes are updated automatically, but will be turned off after 25 minutes of inactivity. Quotes are delayed at least 15 minutes for NASDAQ, NYSE and Amex. See also delay times for other exchanges. Real-Time continuous streaming quotes are available through our premium service. You may turn streaming quotes on or off. Fundamental company data provided by Capital IQ. Financials data provided by Edgar Online. Historical chart data and daily updates provided by Commodity Systems, Inc. (CSI). International historical chart data, daily updates, fund summary, fund performance, dividend data and Morningstar Index data provided by Morningstar, Inc. Analyst estimates data provided by Thomson Financial Network. All data provided by Thomson Financial Network is based solely upon research information provided by third party analysts. Yahoo! has not reviewed, and in no way endorses the validity of such data. Yahoo! and ThomsonFN shall not be liable for any actions taken in reliance thereon. All information provided "as is" for informational purposes only, not intended for trading purposes or advice. Neither Yahoo! nor any of independent providers is liable for any informational errors, incompleteness, or delays, or for any actions taken in reliance on information contained herein. By accessing the Yahoo! site, you agree not to redistribute the information found therein.